D’Osun APC, result of the PDP campaign
Overall, the defections and re-defections of politicians only underline the dialectic of the political equation and the dynamics of electoral calculation. This points to the wave of particularism or ideological inclination in advanced democracies; but, in Nigeria, it speaks volumes about the tide of personal economic pursuits by the political elite, calculating what goes into the stomach with mathematical exactness. Defection, re-defection, is rather the personal aggrandizement of the politician which is its subjective condition, often clothed with an inordinate electoral value.
However, for all intents and purposes, decamping or re-decamping, covertly or openly, is the contextual consequence of election campaigns for the upcoming gubernatorial ballot in Osun State. And it aims to ensure broad, quality support for political parties and their gubernatorial candidates that is broadly competitive and determinable by factors such as partisan strength, campaign issues, campaign budget, mandate, approval and voting habits. The six cruxes or levers, as in all democracies, are bound to wield enormous influence over the growth of election campaigns, still going on in Osun, even though the state is completely isolated from the compelling fluctuations of general elections, presidential and congressional elections, scheduled yet distant.
In Osun, the two favorites, All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are in a direct fight to ‘snatch’ the total votes in the election, but the partisan strength of the respective APC and PDP would be the magic wand to report votes due to gubernatorial candidates from both political parties. Partisan strength as a broker of power, with politicians, making continuous decampments and recampments, is a robust factor in simplifying the variations of Osun Governorate votes to be shared among the contending political parties at the end of the elections. statewide election campaigns. The incumbent, ruling APC, which has continued to record a higher traffic flow of defecting politicians as a corollary to its current election campaigns, has substantial dominance in the state’s electoral space. This fact projects the political party in place into the winning path or path.
It must be said that tenure is not in all cases associated with the size of the party’s campaign budget, including the 2007 electoral defeat of the PDP then in place in Osun. But generally, a political party’s campaign spending is sure to improve the party’s voting margin. The incumbent’s advantage depends on campaign spending, which explains the impact of “money talks” on the election campaign. The proportion of campaign spending unequivocally shows the strength of political parties competing for votes. The size of campaign activities and efforts, including advertising and communications as well as campaign workers, captured by the campaign budget remains an inescapable determinant of competing political parties’ ultimate relationships with gubernatorial vote share. in the state.
The differential in spending effects between Osun’s APC and the PDP compared to contemporary election campaigns in the state is not as heavy as the partisan strength of the political party. This means that campaign spending is not exhaustive, after all. Additional spending by one of the political parties, having already spent incredibly so high, may have a different effect on the outcome of the election campaign.
Any extra spending, crazier than reasonable, will do the political parties in the game for Osun’s votes little or no good. It’s even more a manual of self-euthanasia with certainty, for political parties. The more the political party spends, at random, along with increasing costs of other relevant independent and dependent campaign variables, the fewer votes there are to garner on election day. A political party in the state that initially overspent, monotonously, presumably to ride out big election backlash, is the PDP and the party has virtually achieved diminishing returns as seen in population declines on its campaign outings , more recently.
The incumbent, often used by voters to make electoral choices, gives Osun’s incumbent APC some advantages. The political resources to amass the necessary campaign “coffers” at the incumbent’s disposal allow for greater wiggle room to conduct more expansive and intensive re-election campaign appearances or exits. The benefits of the office of APC are increased by its years of social, economic and political developments, considered _pro bono publico_ and not deemed useless or non-performing in the state. All of this makes the incumbent profoundly less vulnerable to electoral defeat, being also greatly aided by his consequent value-added campaigns continuously, based on intensely quality issues, starring essential records of good accomplishments in power.
Strictly, by the pivotal parameters of partisan strength, campaign issues, campaign budget, function, approval and voting pattern, APC has the lead to come out in the outcome of the upcoming election in governorship of the state. While the increased campaign spending of the PDP will lead to further deficiency with complications arising from the applied personality characteristics of its gubernatorial candidate to make winning the election a daunting task.
Specifically, the way Osun APC, DPP gubernatorial candidate thinks, behaves, his background, related experience, problem solving skills, skillful leadership make the difference which also defines their different campaign structures d , reach and mass appeal for support in the run up to next month’s looming elections. But support in reality as a predictor of election campaign outcome will also be determined by the people’s _galare_ of the state constantly waxing a common attribute sign for the preferred incumbent political party, the 2-finger victory sign of the state. ‘APC in quick response to the party’s thunderous volleys of sloganeering to all of the incumbent’s endorsements.
The barrage of endorsements is Osun’s acknowledgment of the outgoing APC’s good years in governance and administration, seasoned with inexhaustible insight and commitment in regularly coordinated patience, granting himself a place of pride in state politics and economics. The incumbent APC will set the party in the lead in the election as the electorate votes, swayed by the galaxy of endorsement groups across the state they belong to, or voters see themselves in unison, cooperatively, see themselves as consumers looking for the best value for money. And the endorsement galleries will most likely convince the electorate of how the incumbent’s policies, program and plans during the years in power have overwhelmingly influenced the life and lives of the people of Osun to situate the APC coming out on top in the next gubernatorial election. , to be followed by other political parties.
To say that the APC coming out of the July 16 contest is leading to win the highest voting margin in Osun Governorate, ahead of other contestants, is stating the obvious. And it has strategic implications for a telltale electoral victory in subsequent polls at the regional and national levels that will effectively determine where the electoral pendulum swings between the APC and the PDP, the country’s two old rivals in electoral politics.